Does Sacking a Manager Improve Premier League Survival Chances?

As we begin a new season, clubs will start to assess their manager's future. Should they let them go or give them time to recover in a job they have held for years?

It's an intriguing topic and one that sparks much discussion. A growing body of research has been done into this matter, providing us with some fascinating statistics on when it's best to sack your manager.

1. Changing Managers in the Relegation Zone

This season, many clubs are in the relegation zone. Bolton Wanderers, Queens Park Rangers, Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Athletic are all fighting to stay in the Premier League.

They still have 12 games left to save their seasons and avoid relegation. Leicester City, Southampton and Nottingham Forest have joined them in the bottom three.

Teams in relegation zones often consider changing managers, but does sacking one actually improve their chances of survival?

In the Premier League, teams that fire their manager before reaching rock bottom have a much better chance of avoiding relegation than those who wait until the end of the season.

Since 2010/11, 16 managers have been dismissed while their club was in the relegation zone and 10 (63%) avoided it that season. But when this change is made before the new calendar year begins, the odds for success improve to 52% (13 out of 25).

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2. Changing Managers in the Top Four

Over the past four and a half seasons, there has been an influx of managerial changes in the Premier League. This could be attributed to increased pressure on clubs' hierarchy to remain in the top division for its financial rewards.

Data indicates that when teams in the Top Four are struggling, it may be time for a manager change. Aston Villa, Southampton and Crystal Palace all sacked managers while facing relegation this season.

Next season, they could still be in the Premier League with a new manager in place. However, if they are in the relegation zone it is unlikely they will be promoted as it requires significant additions in the transfer market.

Timing-wise, dismissing managers in the middle of February is too late to help teams who are already struggling towards relegation. Indeed, 13 clubs who made managerial changes during this season were ultimately relegated regardless.

3. Changing Managers in the Bottom Four

Premier League record number of managers fired this season is 12; and that number could increase further as we near the final stretch of this campaign. Nine of those departures came from clubs fighting at the bottom of the table: Bournemouth, Wolves, Aston Villa, Everton, Leeds, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Southampton - clubs facing their most difficult battle yet!

With two months left in the tumultuous battle against relegation, data specialists Gracenote have assessed each team's chances of survival based on their remaining fixtures. Although it's too soon to make a definitive call, some teams in the Bottom Four appear to be heading for safety.

4. Changing Managers in the Top Six

Sacked managers in the Top Six can sometimes benefit their survival chances; however, this is not always the case.

Switching a manager during the season, especially towards its conclusion, can be fraught with danger. Many clubs are structured around certain ideologies and changing the coach could disrupt that momentum.

On average, five Premier League managers have been dismissed during each season since 2011, creating an unsettling trend for some teams.

Southampton are particularly struggling, with Nathan Jones taking over for Nigel Pearson after being fired. But so far he's only managed to secure them one win and they now sit at the bottom of the table.

Bournemouth's lack of defensive consistency combined with an absence of goal threat has them at the wrong end of the table. Steve Cooper's side may endure another disappointing run of results, which could ultimately result in their relegation to the Championship next season.

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